It’s an election year in the US; in November, all eligible voters can vote for one person to lead our country into the next four years. 2024 will be a rematch of the 2020 election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, as Trump was able to beat his Republican challengers Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis in the primary elections. Questions of the two main candidates’ ability to run, increased political polarization, and court cases have woven their way into the discourse surrounding the election.
Beyond the United States’ domestic problems, tensions are high worldwide, specifically in three key areas: Taiwan/China, Israel/Palestine, and Ukraine/Russia. Any one of these conflicts could escalate into a full-out brawl between the West and the United States’ fiercest rivals, China, Iran, and Russia, who all have a stake in at least one of the conflicts.
The U.S. is involved in proxy wars with all three powers to varying degrees of directness. The least tangible as of now is the buildup of military infrastructure on the Pacific Rim to deter a potential invasion of the island of Taiwan, which has been feared for decades. The possibility of an invasion has especially come to a head recently, with increased patrolling by China’s air force and their intensified expansion of their military.
But there are conflicts happening right now, costing hundreds of thousands of lives and widening the already ever-increasing gap between the Western and Eastern powers, namely the Ukraine-Russian and Israel-Hamas wars. First, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine just passed over the two-year mark, and while Ukraine has recaptured 54% of previously occupied territory, Global Conflict Tracker reports, it is not all good news for Ukrainians and their supporters. On top of the fact that Russia still holds 18% of the country, there is falling support from Ukraine’s biggest backer, the United States. As of October 2023, 41% of all Americans (62% of Republicans and 14% of Democrats) believed that the US is doing “too much” to help Ukraine, according to a study by Gallup News.
This fall in approval for the United States’ support in Ukraine has correlated with gridlock in Congress in funding for weapons. A few weeks ago, a $95 billion aid package that was supposed to be aimed towards supporting Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan, $60 billion of which would be directed towards Ukraine’s efforts, was passed in the Democrat-led Senate but not in the House.
The situation isn’t looking much better in the Middle East. It has now been six months since the conflict between Israel and Hamas began. Israel has spent a large part of that time conducting bombing and ground operations on the Gaza Strip in response to Hamas’ October 7th surprise attack on Southern Israel. 30,000 people, disproportionally Palestinian (96%), have died in the conflict; however, 26 Israeli hostages that remain in Hamas’ control have died per a report by AP News. The destruction also extends into the infrastructure, as satellite imagery by the BBC revealed that 50% to 61% of buildings in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed.
Domestically, the United States has seen additional effects of this conflict, with widespread protests and advocacy for both sides further pitting an already-divided America against itself. Calls for President Biden to force Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a ceasefire have intensified in recent weeks; a protest even disrupted Biden’s route to the State Of The Union. While a ceasefire mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the US to suspend fighting for 6 weeks to send aid and release hostages is close, nothing is yet official. In his March 7th State of the Union address, the last before the 2024 election in November, Biden announced that there would be an emergency mission to build a pier on Gaza’s shore to better get humanitarian aid into the affected areas.
How Biden continues to respond to both these wars could define how the election goes in November. A couple weeks ago in Michigan, the state with the highest Arab-American population, activist groups began a movement to vote “uncommitted” in their Democratic primary to voice dissent for Biden’s handling of the war. Over 100,000 did (13.2%), far eclipsing predictions for the extent of the protest. This dissent represents a problem for Biden: his foreign policy decisions are having seemingly direct implications for his reelection campaign. A growing number of voters may not vote for him because of his foreign policy, even if they are on the progressive side of the political spectrum.
Biden has also tirelessly supported Ukraine for the duration of its war, meeting with President Zelenskyy and making a trip to Ukraine. But with support faltering domestically and Ukrainian progress slowing after the mostly-failed counteroffensive, Biden seems to be retreating from the idea of all-out victory, hoping to refocus on ensuring that Ukraine can defend against Russia until talks of a ceasefire can occur, per Politico. While Ukraine will most likely give up at least some territory, Biden maintains that he will continue to support Ukraine, spending 3:47 on the topic during the State of The Union.
On the other hand, Former President Trump has said that he could “solve the Ukraine war in one day,” although he has not described what that would entail. Trump has appeared to be critical of the level of US involvement in Ukraine and Europe in general, feeling that European powers rely too much on the US for military aid. Trump has taken a non-interventionist position on the Israel-Hamas war, not commenting much on the subject, but seems to want a more hands-off approach than Biden’s current position. Overall, Trump hasn’t totally fleshed out his opinions on foreign policy due to not participating in the GOP debates, but the country will hear his positions one way or another before the election.
In order for Biden to win reelection, it may be necessary to balance the demands of the American people regarding foreign policy. If he is able to decrease Ukraine’s dependency on the US without allowing Russia to make gains, as well as mediate a ceasefire in Gaza without angering pro-Israel Americans, it could be what allows him to edge out Trump in November; if not, it could be the deciding blow.
